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Published: Wednesday, 24 July 2019 07:41

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Photo: PLHavana, July 24. - Several intelligence services move in the shade in the Persian Gulf region, as tensions between Iran and the United States grow, since Washington abandoned the nuclear agreement a year ago.

It is not surprising those movements in an area where there are no excuses to trigger a conflict, especially to control the route of 35 percent of the world's oil that moves through the oceans.

Lieutenant General Robert Ashley, head of the United States Defense Intelligence Agency, sees war as something that nobody wants and does not believe that Iran, China or Russia want that scenario.

Several oil tankers were targeted by explosive attacks, of which Western and surrounding Arab governments try to blame the naval forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran, with no evidence of such trials.

On the other hand, the detention of an Iranian oil tanker by British forces in the Strait of Gibraltar added a contender and further warmed the region, although the United Kingdom as a colonial power always remained in the area, as did France.

The tensions could follow the alarm, because an armed conflict in the area is not beneficial for anyone, even for Israel that seeks the destruction of the Persian nation.

Analysts and the media say that neither Tehran nor Washington want a confrontation but neither party wants to give up their positions.

In the case of the Iranians, they press for the suspension of sanctions and call on the White House to return to the nuclear agreement that President Donald Trump left in May 2018.

The Americans, although they see in the Persian nation a danger to maintain their hegemony in the region, presumably try to avoid a clash when the elections in which the president intends to re-elect are around the corner.

The enrichment of uranium above what was agreed in the ill-fated Joint Comprehensive Action Program (PAIC) agreement is not a credible argument to justify an aggression, despite the speculation that would facilitate the path to Tehran for the nuclear club.

Washington and its allies know that the possibility of manufacturing the bomb with the current enrichment, announced by the Persian nation on July 7 based on articles 26 and 36 of the PAIC, is false, analysts said.

The Iranians increased their enrichment level to 4.5 percent, further away from the 80 percent or more needed to produce a nuclear device, experts said.

For observers, it is foreseeable that the contestants will look for a scenario in order to start conversations, without ruling out that any action out of control could trigger a conflict of unforeseeable consequences.

THE MOST DANGEROUS PLACE OF THE EARTH

An analysis published by the site www.theamericanconservative.com ensures that the Strait of Hormuz is the most dangerous place on Earth.

Signed by Scott Ritter, an expert in the area, the text states that US sanctions created a powder magazine, as evidenced by the recent clashes between the United Kingdom and Iran, and all that is needed is a spark.

In Washington there are divergences within Trump's cabinet; the National Security adviser, John Bolton, although it is said he lost prominence, pushes the position of the neoconservatives and together with the Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, insist on looking for a triggering incident of a confrontation.

Apparently, Trump does not want to venture into a clash in which the United States could stagnate and put into play his possible reelection. Most likely, he will go through the variant of creating chaos and then presenting himself as the great fixer, the specialists valued.

While deciding, the 90-mile-long strait will be the most explosive place on earth, not only for incidents that may be created between states, but also because there are groups in the area without flags that would favor the armed collision between opposites. traditional.

Media analysis suggests that the ideal would be Washington's return to PAIC after an approach, following the lack of results of its 'maximum pressure' campaign to negotiate a new treaty.

That would lead to the cessation of crippling economic sanctions, including the application of so-called secondary sanctions, directed against nations and companies that do business with Iran in violation of extraterritorial embargoes applied by the White House.

In this environment, the parties move behind the scenes and there are diplomatic efforts, while some bet on a negotiated solution, which would prevent the conflict and that Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, which they say they will not do.

In this convulsive scenario, both Trump and his Iranian counterpart, Hasan Rohaní, state that they don't want a war, however other figures on both sides are a bit more ambiguous.

On the other hand, incidents such as the recent arrest of alleged US intelligence officials in Iran, after months of growing tension, are only signs of what might come in the near future.

The Iranian authorities, however, reiterate that the Islamic Republic does not want war with Washington and is willing to return to the negotiating table whenever the US country returns to the nuclear agreement and lifts the punitive measures imposed.

It is evident that the scenario is used for all options, some of which, for example, war, could result in an erroneous interpretation of the messages between the parties or the covert action of the powerful forces moving in the shadow. (PL)